12/18 Here’s a rundown of Ark Invest’s buys for the past week, and what it’s doing with its Slack shares. We describe Cash App’s innovative marketing strategies in one of our previous blogs. Certain of the statements contained on this website may be statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on ARK's current views and assumptions, and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Square Crypto Unveils the Lightning Developer Kit See Section #2 and #3 Follow @CathiesArk Cathie's Ark is not affiliated with Ark Invest or Cathie Wood Quotes are delayed 15 minutes Graphs, numbers, and charts should only be taken as approximations. You may not use the material for commercial purposes without first obtaining written permission. If primary and secondary users each were to monetize at 30% instead of 20%, its price target would approach $500, delivering a 26% compound annual rate of return during the five years ended December 2025. Bitcoin’s success could be Square’s success, suggesting that grants to Bitcoin open source developers and marketers could benefit Square in the long term. For simplicity, the valuation extract focuses only on Square’s US opportunity. In the future, we anticipate that Cash App will offer a range of services comparable to that of traditional banks today, including personal loans, credit cards, mortgages and insurance. Further, there is no assurance that any strategies, methods, sectors, or any investment programs herein were or will prove to be profitable, or that any investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable for any investor or client. For full disclosures, please go to our Terms & Conditions page. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. For full Award Disclosure please go to our Terms & Conditions page. Square’s projected price target depends importantly on the three groups of Cash App monetization. Cash App could use Bitcoin to overcome the fragmented and inefficient financial infrastructure in Africa and other developing geographies, however likely would still face Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti Money Laundering (AML) requirements and other cross-border regulatory challenges. Aluminium in cakes and ready-to-serve meals in aluminium trays (n = 68). If Cash App can monetize 20% of its US user base at the level of traditional banks today, then with modest growth in its seller business, SQ could return 19% at an annual rate during the next five years, rising from $150 today to $375 per share in 2025. What did Ark Invest buy this week? ARK Invest ETFs have delivered huge returns for investors recently. ARK believes innovation will change the way the world works and lead to a more sustainable future. The Adviser did not pay any fee to the grantor of the awards for the right to promote the Adviser's receipt of the awards nor was the Adviser required to be a member of an organization to be eligible for the awards. download the GitHub extension for Visual Studio, https://ark-invest.com/analyst-research/square-valuation, https://ark-invest.com/wp-content/trades/ARK_Trades.pdf. These companies such as Tesla, Square, and Illumina are just some of the companies form the backbone of Ark Invest’s different funds. According to Ark Invest’s chief executive, the Bitcoin ecosystem has not seen the end of institutional investors. ARK Invest holds a 25% probability that Tesla will hit $15,000 in 2024. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute, either explicitly or implicitly, any provision of services or products by ARK. When one of its sellers accepts a $50 payment, for example, Square charges $1.47, or 2.95%, but retains only $0.50, or 1% of the purchase value, as its net take-rate. For a list of all purchases and sales made by ARK for client accounts during the past year that could be considered by the SEC as recommendations, please go to https://ark-invest.com/wp-content/trades/ARK_Trades.pdf. Like Cash App’s network effects on the consumer side of the equation, software services seem to have increased seller retention as measured by Square’s positive gross profit retention for cohorts measured quarterly and annually since 2012. Please remember that there are inherent risks involved with investing in the markets, and your investments may be worth more or less than your initial investment upon redemption. Certain of the statements contained herein are statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on ARK's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Historically, Square has focused on building proprietary technology and deep partnerships, taking time to understand markets, rather than blitz-scaling across geographies. ARK is a global asset manager specializing in thematic investing in disruptive innovation. Perhaps most important on the cryptoasset front, Square could build long term shareholder value through its Square Crypto initiative. Learn more. All content is subject to change without notice. Using the average $880 annual ARPU generated by traditional banks as a benchmark for Cash App, we could be overestimating the cross-selling capabilities of banks and underestimating those of Cash App. Wood predicted that a new wave of institutional investors was on the way. I recently discovered Cathie Wood and ARK Invest and have come away very impressed with their ETFs. Furthermore, Square could use the Lightning Network, a second layer application on top of Bitcoin, to disintermediate third parties in transactions between and among Cash App users and Square sellers. In an episode of ARK Invest’s In the Know series, Cathie Wood says she is witnessing a spike in institutional interest in Bitcoin. Ten years after launching a revolutionary credit card ‘dongle’ reader, in our view Square still offers sellers the best value proposition. In our view, Square will use Bitcoin, the decentralized network, and bitcoin, the cryptocurrency, to enter new geographies, especially Africa during the next few years. You signed in with another tab or window. Disclosure: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial 4.0 International License. ARK's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy,sell, or hold any security. Catherine Wood, the founder of ARK Investment (Ark Invest), believes that many more big firms will be exploring Bitcoin in the coming days. Square Capital, Square’s small business lending arm, increases its originations as a percentage of gross payment volume (GPV) from 2% in 2019 to 4% in 2025. ARK’s statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Ultimately, we believe that Cash App will offer a better and more personalized user experience at a much lower cost than traditional banks. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. As a result, we believe that Square should be able to double its penetration of the US general purpose card purchase volume from 2.7% in 2019 to 5.5%, growing transaction-based revenues at a 19% annual rate during the next five years. What did Ark Invest buy this week? The fund seeks to invest a minimum of 65% of assets in domestic and foreign securities related to the theme of “disruptive innovation.” ARKK has produced a market return of … If done so successfully, Square could charge sellers for advertising their products on Boost or for search results akin to Amazon’s Sponsored Brands. The Company specializes in thematic investing and focuses on key areas of disruptive innovation, including genomics, industrial transformation, and the next generation of web development. ARK Invest is a private investment start-up and founded on the principle of Open Source Research. We also assume that Cash App’s estimated 75 million monthly active users break down into the three groups in 2025: 20% primary, 20% secondary, and 60% unmonetized, resulting in an average ARPU of $260. Cash App also is leveraging innovative marketing strategies to attract new customers across all demographic groups in the US. As always, we are forever grateful for the most exciting fund manager on Wall Street, Ark Invest, to not only produce five future relevant ETFs for us retail investors to buy, but also publishing exactly what it’s buying every day and for each ETF. Cash App could achieve even higher ARPUs than in our base case with more efficient cross-selling than in traditional banks. Follow @CathiesArk Cathie's Ark is not affiliated with Ark Invest or Cathie WoodQuotes are … At some point, in our view, Square will be able to facilitate transactions directly between its sellers and Cash App users, disintermediating most third parties and optimizing its unit economics. Wood bets that big companies, especially tech firms, will follow in the footsteps of payment giant Square and Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy and purchase BTC as a hedge against the dollar. An ARK Invest spokesperson wouldn’t elaborate, but Ms. Wood told an interviewer last month that she expects to nearly triple … All content is original and has been researched and produced by ARK Investment Management LLC (“ARK”) unless otherwise stated herein. New York, NY 10016 The content presented does not constitute investment advice, should not be used as the basis for any investment decision, and does not purport to provide any legal, tax or accounting advice. Moreover, according to a Jefferies survey in 2019, Square Payroll is the second most popular payroll software in the US small and medium business space, trailing only Intuit’s QuickBooks. In the latter scenario, Square sellers would have an incentive to maximize the number of Cash App transactions and minimize the number of other card transactions, effectively becoming sales agents for Cash App. Square Valuation Extract. The ARK Innovation ETF ARRK, as mentioned, is the most popular and largest in the ARK family. The reason consumers cite most when deciding on a new product or service is the rate or fee, followed by simplification. Other Square seller services grow at a 19% compound annual rate, the same rate as transaction-based revenues, through 2025. In the chart below, we describe 10 Cash App monetization scenarios and, holding all other assumptions constant, provide our forecasts of their impact on Square’s stock price. Dorsey had planned to spend time in Africa this year before COVID-19 derailed the opportunity. Read ARK’s corresponding blog with further explanation of our assumptions and thoughts on Square here: https://ark-invest.com/analyst-research/square-valuation. Today, Cash App offers users banking services such as direct deposit, debit cards, ATM access, a platform to invest in equities and bitcoin, a rewards program, free transfers from the US to the UK, and integration with Square sellers. DISCLAIMER: This web site and its author are in no way affiliated with ARK Invest or Trading 212. Square’s Seller Business: A Superior Value Proposition. Non-bank providers like Charles Schwab or Robinhood for investing, LendingClub for personal loans, and RocketMortgage for mortgages are proliferating, perhaps because consumers want to diversify their risks or because banks cannot convince users to agree to more than one product or service. Square Capital, Square’s small business lending arm, increases its originations as a percentage of gross payment volume (GPV) from 2% in 2019 to 4% in 2025. Perhaps unsurprising given Jack Dorsey’s public advocacy , Square enabled Cash App users to buy and sell bitcoin in 2017. Ark invest square analysis Figure 4. Other research puts the average revenue per retail bank customer at $413. Square is No. As another example of companies struggling to build out front-end relationships with both consumers and businesses, JP Morgan recently shut down a payment network that attempted to link consumers and businesses directly. In an episode of ARK Invest’s In the Know series, Cathie Wood says she is … Catherine Wood, the founder of ARK Investment (Ark Invest), believes that many more big firms will be exploring Bitcoin in the coming days. Published 30/9/2020. For full disclosures, click here. In July 2020, Square began recruiting for an Italian-speaking customer support position[7] and, in September, Cash App was looking for a European Operations Manager. We believe that Square’s (SQ) Cash App could become a leading global consumer financial services provider. Catherine Wood, the founder of ARK Investment (Ark Invest), believes that many more big firms will be exploring Bitcoin in the coming days. We will welcome all questions, feedback, and constructive criticism. We delineate other potential growth catalysts in the last section of this piece. In contrast, while Visa credit cards impact millions of consumers and merchants, many third parties sit between them, preventing Visa from engaging with either consumer or businesses in real time.[6]. We divide Cash App users into three groups: primary Cash App users who monetize at an $880 ARPU (average revenue per user), the same rate on average as bank customers; secondary Cash app users who monetize at half that rate, or $440; and unmonetized users who use only Cash App’s products that are free. All content is original and has been researched and produced by ARK unless otherwise stated. The convergence of seller and consumer ecosystems, Square is one of the only companies in the world with real-time front-end access to both consumers and businesses. Intentionally, we have not incorporated the potential for Square’s international business, an important call option. In other words, consumers have committed to 1.8 financial products or services on average. Published 30/9/2020. ARK-Invest-Square-Valuation-Extract. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list. The job posting has since been taken offline. The five actively managed ETFs provided by ARK cover innovation, autonomous technology and … In our view, meeting the three challenges mentioned above, Cash App will increase its average revenue per user by (ARPU) 49% at a compound annual rate during the next five years, from $25 last year to $260 in 2025. If nothing happens, download the GitHub extension for Visual Studio and try again. In previous research, we learned that a disproportionate percentage of Google searches early in Cash App’s development were in the southern US, states with high unbanked and underbanked rates. We believe that Square’s (SQ) Cash App could become a leading global consumer financial services provider. Ultimately, we believe Cash App could enable an e-commerce platform and benefit from many new revenue streams. [3] For reference, private challenger bank Chime generated $100 in revenue per direct deposit customer, per our estimates. Square could use its seller base as an acquisition channel for new Cash App users by offering its loyalty via Cash App, enabling Square sellers to use Boost as an advertising platform, or facilitating closed-loop transactions between Cash App users and Square seller at lower cost for sellers than standard credit card processing, thus incentivizing sellers to convince more shoppers to transact via Cash App. This methodical approach seems likely to pay dividends, especially in Europe, during the next five years. Use Git or checkout with SVN using the web URL. But traditional car makers are catching up. Additionally, ARK does not have investment banking, consulting, or any type of fee-paying relationship with the subject company. Today, Square pays fees, including those for interchange, assessment, processing, and bank settlement, to various third parties. ARK Invest currently offers some of the best performing ETFs over the past five years. This material is intended only to provide observations and views of the author(s) at the time of writing, both of which are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The consumption of financial services today is highly fragmented, as 55% of consumers have relationships with two or more financial services providers. To approach this rate of monetization, we believe Cash App has to solve three challenges: 1) launching and monetizing new products, 2) becoming the primary consumer financial services provider for users and, 3) perhaps most important, serving higher income demographics. 12/18 Posted on December 18, 2020 December 18, 2020 Author Michael O'Mahony Comments Off on What did Ark Invest buy this week? The author accepts no responsibility for financial decisions made using the information provided by … Modifiable variables are marked in red. Why invest in ARKK Focused on ARK’s belief that innovation is key to growth, the ARK Innovation ETF is built on the cornerstone investments that present the best risk-reward opportunities from ARK’s innovation-based themes. At some point, Square could integrate Square Online Store with Cash App, enabling Cash App users to search for and purchase Square seller products, much like Shopify’s Shop application. The Adviser did not pay a fee to be considered for or granted the awards. Even if primary and secondary Cash App users were to monetize at only a 10% rate, Square could appreciate at a 10% annual rate to roughly $250 per share in 2025.[4]. View Ark Invest SQUARE - Google Docs.pdf from ECN 135 at University of California, Davis. Square does not monetize the remaining 60% of Cash App’s MAUs. Square also could incentivize them to become Cash App sales agents with access to an advertising platform and to millions of consumers with every day discounts via Boosts. As a result, Cash App’s ARPU could be multiples higher than the $260 modeled in our base case during the next five years. Importantly, Venmo and Cash App users have a financial incentive to invite their parents and grandparents onto the platforms, an incentive that did not exist when Facebook and Instagram launched. If it were to cut out the middlemen and facilitate payments directly between sellers and Cash App users, Square could leave pricing unchanged and almost triple its net take-rate or lower pricing and undercut most competitors. ARK Investment Management LLC Info: Size ($ in 1000's) At 09/30/2020: $16,861,030 At 06/30/2020: $9,297,482 ARK Investment Management LLC holdings changes, total fund size, and other information presented on HoldingsChannel.com was derived from ARK Investment Management LLC 13F filings. Likewise, Square Capital originations should double from 2% of GPV to 4%. 3 East 28th Street, 7th Floor, For full disclosures, please go to https://ark-invest.com/terms-of-use. [5] The network effects associated with peer-to-peer payments could prove more effective than those that Facebook, Google, and other social media enjoyed 10 to 15 years ago. Moreover, as a comprehensive Digital Wallet incorporating Square’s seller ecosystem, Cash App could integrate offline and online commerce, distinguishing it from both traditional and challenger banks. The firm is rooted in over 40 years of experience in investing in technologies that aim to deliver outsized growth as industries transform. ARK focuses on innovation so that our investors can capitalize on four market inefficiencies. In our view, Cash App offers users the most cost-effective and streamlined products and services in the financial services industry as it builds personal relationships that lead to efficient and effective cross-selling. While ARK’s current assessment of the subject company may be positive, please note that it may be necessary for ARK to liquidate or reduce position sizes prior to the company attaining any indicated valuation prices due to a variety of conditions including, but not limited to, client specific guidelines, changing market conditions, investor activity, fundamental changes in the company’s business model and competitive landscape, headline risk, and government/regulatory activity. Square Valuation Extract. Here, Edward Sheldon highlights three ARK stocks he'd buy for his portfolio today. For a list of all purchases and sales made by ARK for client accounts during the past year that could be considered by the SEC as recommendations, click here. Cash App Could Be the Fastest Growing Digital Wallet in the US, Venmo vs. Cash App: A Look Inside the Most Popular Consumer Finance Products in the US, Square Cash App’s Viral Marketing Strategy Attracts Users.
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